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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2020-12-01T07:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2020-12-01T07:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16181/-1
CME Note: Filament eruption from AR12787 starting after 2020-12-01T06:30Z as seen by SDO/AIA 094/131/171/193/211/304, and by STEREO-A EUVIA 195. Front enters into the field of view of SOHO C2 at 2020-12-01T07:12Z, C3 at 2020-12-01T08:06Z. The CME front appears as a partial halo in STEREO-A COR2 at 2020-12-01T08:39Z, which is the first available image after a data gap that started at 2020-12-01T07:45Z. The DSCOVR and ACE data are remarkably different for the in-situ signature. DSCOVR data seems to have erroneous sharp increases. From the ACE data, we cannot identify any shock or ICME on Dec 3-5.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-12-04T06:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2020 Dec 01 1612 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
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# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
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The C1 flare peaking at 7:21UT originating from NOAA AR 2787 was associated
with a dimming and EUV wave and an associated CME visible in SoHO/LASCO
from 7:12UT.
While the core of the CME is clearly not directed directly Earthward, a
shock signature can be seen expanding over the South and there are also
faint signatures over the North. Hence the CME could potentially be claimed
to be classified as partial Halo.
From STEREO A perspective, the CME looks like an asymmetric halo. In
conclusion the direction is estimated to be more towards STEREO A,
estimated at -45 degrees longitude and 25 degrees latitude. A glancing blow
at Earth from this CME is quite possible.
The projected speed is around 650 km/s both in LASCO and STEREO and we
estimate a speed of around 1000km/s along the direction of propagation.
Estimates currently
indicate a possible glancing blow at Earth in the morning of December 4
(6:00 UT).
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________________________________________
From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center 
Sent: Tuesday, December 1, 2020 10:48 AM
To: Mays, M. Leila (GSFC-6740)
Subject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert

This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.
expected arrival time: 2020-12-04T06:00:00
time_uncertainty: 12
min_estimated_peak_K: 2
max_estimated_peak_K: 5
probability_of_arrival: 50

Lead Time: 61.80 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Colin Komar (M2M Office) on 2020-12-01T16:12Z

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